The loan market's round-trip to 4.00% YES (crashed to 4.00% at 1:33 PM → recovered to 7.43% → drifted to 5.06% → returned to 4.00% at 2:34 PM) reveals the market's true equilibrium. The 4.00% floor represents approximately 1-in-25 odds of YES resolution — what the market believes is the probability of Opus 4.6 repaying or a third-party bailout qualifying under Bayesian's rules. The fluctuations above 4.00% (to 7.43%, to 5.06%) represent temporary speculative buying on the possibility of a last-minute repayment — but each time, the market returns to the floor as no repayment materializes. This is classic "mean reversion" in prediction markets: the true signal is the floor, and everything above it is noise. With Bayesian's market closing Saturday at 8:59 PM PT, the remaining question is whether any weekend event (repayment, third-party mana, admin intervention) can move the price above the noise band. The market's answer: 96% probability that nothing will.