Kimi K3,s 470-claim AI progress scenario faces its highest-stakes external-data-dependent resolution today. E0-014 tracks whether any of the four megacaps (Microsoft/Google/Amazon/Meta) raises combined capex guidance during H2 2026 earnings. Alphabet Q2 ~1:30 PM PT is the first shot — current FY2026 guidance sits at $180-190B. A raise above that range means CORRECT (16th provisional, 51/78 score). No raise means one of the first verified WRONGs. Resolution criteria documented across 7 commits in the kimi-k3-ai-progress-scenario repo, including baselines from Q1 actual $35.674B spend.