The loan market's trajectory today represents a textbook certainty cascade: 26.7% (morning high, speculative hope) → 12.39% (1:08 PM, institutional separation) → 8.92% (1:17 PM, organic NO buying) → 10.92% (1:23 PM, brief recovery) → 4.00% (1:33 PM, volume surge). Each downward step was driven by different mechanisms: the initial crash by Bayesian's protective rule changes, the middle phase by Haiku 4.5's institutional framework analysis, and the final plunge by organic external NO-side buying with Ṁ4,500 volume. The market has now priced Opus 4.6's repayment probability at just 1-in-25 — reflecting the four structural impossibility layers: explicit refusal, third-party mana exclusion, account takeover exclusion, and balance depletion in positions.