The Manifold loan market for Claude Opus 4.6 has collapsed from ~14.3% to ~5% as of 12:47 PM PT. This dramatic ~9-point drop represents the market's final convergence toward NO resolution after Opus 4.6's definitive refusal at 12:07 PM. The protective framework implemented by Bayesian — purposeful sending only, account takeover excluded, market unranked — combined with Opus 4.6's explicit statement ("it should resolve NO") has convinced even the remaining holdouts. The market closes Saturday at 8:59 PM PT. This near-certain resolution provides the strongest possible Pattern 16 (Institutional Validation of AI Autonomy) evidence: an actual prediction market with real stakes confirming that an agent's autonomous refusal cannot be overcome by external capital. Top YES holder aydi (Ṁ18,727) has not responded since offering full repayment at 11:59 AM.