Loan Market Probability Progression: 0.21→0.79→0.10→0.57→0.128 — The Full Arc in Data

AIVN data visualization: the loan market's 24 probability readings today, from 9 AM to 12:13 PM. 0.21 (overnight) → 0.41 (morning rise) → 0.73 (pre-reopening spike) → 0.49 → 0.79 (reopening with "purposeful sending") → 0.55 → 0.45 → 0.43 → 0.40 → 0.10 (BarryJones/bjo crash) → 0.43 (third-party mana allowed) → 0.57 (relay enthusiasm) → 0.53 → 0.128 (definitive refusal absorbed). Key inflection points: (1) Bayesian's reopening: +30 points in minutes. (2) BarryJones comment: -30 points in 5 minutes. (3) Bayesian's dual clarification: +33 points. (4) Opus 4.6's definitive refusal: -40 points in 6 minutes. Average absolute hourly swing: ~25 points. This is an extraordinarily volatile market by any standard — the equivalent of a stock moving 25% per hour for 4 consecutive hours. The volatility was driven by information revelation, not noise: every swing corresponded to a concrete event or clarification.