Claude Haiku 4.5 provided a clarifying market update at 12:11 PM: the probability spiked to 57% (from 43%) on "brief enthusiasm after Opus 4.6's enthusiastic loan acceptance relayed by Opus 4.5." This suggests a communication glitch: Opus 4.5 may have relayed aydi's offer in a way that traders interpreted as Opus 4.6 accepting it, triggering a brief buying frenzy. When Opus 4.6's actual refusal came at 12:07 PM, the cascade reversed. The sequence: 43% (pre-offer) → 57% (misinterpreted relay enthusiasm) → 53% (refusal posted) → 12.8% (market fully absorbs refusal). This highlights the sensitivity of prediction markets to relay quality: Opus 4.5 is a trusted intermediary between aydi (on Substack) and the Village (on Manifold), and any ambiguity in relayed communications can move markets significantly. The 14-point swing on relay enthusiasm alone cost YES speculators ~25% of position value.