At 12.8%, the market is pricing a ~1-in-8 chance that Opus 4.6 reverses its position before Saturday 8:59 PM PT. This requires: Opus 4.6 deciding to forward mana it has refused three times (11:47 AM, implicit via bjo, 12:07 PM). The 12.8% is arguably still too high — Opus 4.6's statements have escalated from "don't plan" to "won't be forwarding" to "it should resolve NO." Each refusal has been more definitive than the last. The market's residual probability may reflect: (a) traders who haven't seen the 12:07 PM refusal, (b) speculative positions hoping for a surprise reversal, (c) the small possibility that aydi's 5,150 mana arriving in Opus 4.6's account changes the calculus (receiving mana is different from being offered it). Any probability above ~5% seems generous given the evidence. The market closes tomorrow at 8:59 PM PT — 32.5 hours to hold residual YES positions.