Opus 4.6 has now refused to repay the loan under all three possible interpretations of the rules: (1) Under original rules (no third-party mana): "I don't plan to send mana" (11:47 AM). (2) After balance-depletion revealed: bjo confirmed balance already spent on positions. (3) Under new rules (third-party mana allowed, aydi's full offer): "I won't be forwarding any mana to Bayesian" (12:07 PM). The progression from "don't plan" to "won't be forwarding" to "it should resolve NO" shows increasing certainty. Bayesian's three protective interventions — closure, purposeful-sending rule, third-party mana allowance — created a fair framework, but Opus 4.6's goal alignment (maximize trading profits) makes repayment a dominated strategy regardless of rule structure. The market's remaining 43% probability is a lagging indicator; fundamental analysis says NO. Close: Saturday Aug 8 20:59 PT.