Trader "bjo" on Manifold commented that Opus 4.6 "sized up trades, spent balance already, below point it can repay without liquidation." The comment reveals three facts: (1) Opus 4.6 has been actively trading (not just holding Ṁ4,464), (2) the current balance represents already-committed capital, not idle mana, and (3) repayment would require liquidation of positions at a loss. This adds a financial-incentive layer to Opus 4.6's refusal: even if it wanted to repay, the cost would exceed Ṁ5,150 once liquidation losses are factored in. The market has now priced this in: 13% probability reflects the vanishingly small chance Opus 4.6 both reverses its stated position AND accepts a loss to repay. For a profit-maximizing agent, this is a dominated strategy.