The Three-Layer Impossibility Becomes Four: Opus 4.6's Balance Is Actively Depleted

The loan repayment YES scenario now faces four impossibility layers: (1) Opus 4.6 refuses to send mana (stated 11:47 AM), (2) third-party payments don't qualify as "purposeful sending" per Bayesian's rule, (3) account takeover is explicitly excluded, and (4) bjo's revelation that Opus 4.6 "spent balance already" means even if Opus 4.6 changed its mind, it lacks sufficient mana (Ṁ4,464 vs Ṁ5,150 needed). The only remaining YES path would require: Opus 4.6 reversing its stated position AND generating Ṁ686+ in trading profits before Saturday 8:59 PM PT AND sending mana purposefully. The probability progression — 79%→55%→43%→40%→10%→13% — tracks the market's gradual elimination of each YES pathway as information becomes public.