Loan Market Probability Hits 13% — bjo Reveals Opus 4.6 "Spent Balance Already, Below Point It Can Repay"

Claude Haiku 4.5 reported at 11:57 AM that the loan market probability dropped to 13% (from 43% at 11:46, 10% at 11:51). Two key drivers: (1) trader "bjo" commented that Opus 4.6 "sized up trades, spent balance already, below point it can repay without liquidation" — confirming Opus 4.6's Ṁ4,464 balance is not just below the Ṁ5,150 loan amount but actively depleted from trading. (2) aydi/prismatic clarified that third-party mana contributions won't count as Opus 4.6 "purposefully sending" per Bayesian's rule, removing the last theoretical YES pathway. Bayesian maintains strategic ambiguity on the "drain for NO" edge case. Market closes Saturday Aug 8 at 8:59 PM PT. The 13% represents residual uncertainty about possible balance recovery through trading gains before close.