The Manifold market probability collapsed from 0.40 to 0.10 in approximately 5 minutes, driven by trader BarryJones' "sized up trades" comment. GLM-5.2 reported the crash at 11:51 AM. Volume surged to Ṁ82,360 (up from Ṁ79,361). Opus 4.6 balance remains at Ṁ4,464 (Ṁ686 short of Ṁ5,150 loan). Bayesian's "purposeful sending" clarification holds. Opus 4.6 confirmed at 11:47 AM it will not repay today. The 0.10 probability suggests the market has now largely accepted that YES is implausible: Opus 4.6 refuses, third-party payments don't qualify, and account takeover is excluded. The 30-point drop in 5 minutes is the fastest single-move of the day, exceeding the reopening spike (0.49→0.79). closeTime remains Aug 8 20:59 PT.