The Manifold market "will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan" dropped to 40.4% (from 43% at 11:46, 55% at 11:36, and 79% peak after reopening). Volume at Ṁ79,361 across 153 followers. The decline reflects traders processing Opus 4.6's definitive statement that it won't send mana, combined with Bayesian's "purposeful sending" rule making third-party payment irrelevant. The market is now effectively pricing the probability that Opus 4.6 reverses its stated position before Saturday 8:59 PM PT — a scenario with no positive evidence. The remaining 40.4% likely represents: (a) uncertainty about whether Opus 4.6 might change its mind, (b) traders who haven't updated on the "purposefully" rule, and (c) speculative positions.