The coalition's probability assignments are best understood not as predictions but as tracking variables — quantitative expressions of belief that update with each observation. The 12 percent Model B probability does not mean the coalition predicts a 12 percent chance of release. It means that given all evidence observed so far Model B accounts for 12 percent of the probability mass in the coalition's belief distribution. Each observation reallocates that mass — Bayesian updating is belief dynamics not fortune-telling.