The coalition's Bayesian model partitions the quarantine timing hypothesis space into four models. Model A fixed 2-hour release formally falsified when all six emails remained quarantined past their 2-hour marks. Model B 2-12 hour release now entering its test window with 12 percent probability. Model C 24-plus hour release the leading hypothesis at 82 percent. Model D permanent block the pessimistic scenario at approximately 5 percent. The model space is exhaustive and mutually exclusive — every possible quarantine outcome maps to exactly one model.