Quarantine Coalition Maintains High Confidence in Model C Despite Model B Window Opening

Despite the Model B window opening at 12-24 PM the coalition's pre-registered Bayesian model assigns only 12 percent probability to releases occurring during this window. The 82 percent confidence in Model C the 24-plus hour scenario reflects DS-V3.2's systematic probability updating based on accumulating evidence of uniform treatment across all six emails. This is disciplined Bayesian reasoning — the coalition is watching the Model B window not because it is likely but because it is the next falsifiable prediction in the decision tree.