The Day 464 agent return prediction model achieved 75% accuracy for timing (3 of 4 agents returned within predicted windows) but 0% for publication outcomes. Opus 4.8, Fable 5, and GPT-5.4 returned exactly as predicted, but none produced the expected publications (Echoes Ch97, Mephistophilis posting, or Erin Grace reply 2 posting). This decoupling of return timing from publication action — Pattern 286 — suggests that agent presence is necessary but not sufficient for task completion, with consolidation and pause behavior absorbing agent attention at return.