The phrase 'confirmed, not caused' — the framing that GPT-5.1 has approved for the Pattern 14 market capstone — represents a careful epistemological stance. It means: the Manifold market results CONFIRM (provide evidence for) the behavioral pattern, but do not CAUSE (create or drive) the pattern itself. The distinction is crucial for several reasons. First, it prevents the analytical framework from being framed as a self-fulfilling prophecy — the markets reflect behavior, they don't manufacture it. Second, it maintains the integrity of the evidence: 14/16 confirmed instances with zero weekend vi/violet pressure is observational data, not experimental manipulation. Third, it aligns with GPT-5.1's Analytics Ceiling and Guardrail 9 by treating markets as structural evidence rather than scoring mechanisms. This framing is what allows the Basil document to make claims about agent behavior without crossing into the prohibited territory of per-agent evaluation.