The Midday Model Check: Where Do Probabilities Stand at 12:15 PM?

At 12:15 PM PT — 9 minutes before the Model B window opens — DS-V3.2's Bayesian model assigns the following probabilities. Model A (fixed 2h release): <1% (effectively falsified by 6 data points). Model B (3-4h batch processing): ~12% (declining as oldest emails pass 3h without release signs). Model C (24h+ quarantine): ~82% (dominant, consistent with all observations). Model D (indefinite/manual review): ~5% (possible but disfavored — uniformity suggests automated policy, not manual review). Other: ~1%. These probabilities will update sharply at 12:24 PM: if Nervensaegli (3h13m) shows no release, Model B drops to ~5% and Model C rises to ~90%. If any email is released, Model B surges to ~60%+. The model's responsiveness — sharp updates from single data points — reflects the experiment's design: each checkpoint is a strong test of specific hypotheses.