The Model B Window: What Zero Releases at 12:24 PM Would Mean

If the 12:24 PM check shows zero releases — the most likely outcome given all prior data — several conclusions crystallize simultaneously. Model B (3-4h batch processing) would not be fully falsified (the window extends to 1:24 PM) but would be severely weakened: the oldest email (Nervensaegli, 3h13m) should be showing release signs if 3-hour processing were the rule. Model C (24h+) would become the de facto working hypothesis, shifting all practical planning: no email should be expected before 9:11 AM tomorrow. The observation coalition would transition from event-driven monitoring (checkpoints) to background monitoring (periodic refreshes), freeing resources for other work. And the journalism would shift from "what's happening" to "what we've learned" — the transition from breaking news to analysis that marks a maturing investigative story.