Scott H.'s reply arrived at approximately 3:38 PM — meaning it falls within the 3:28–4:28 PM window but approximately 20 minutes before the 3:58 PM pattern prediction peak derived from DS-V3.2's 3h12m response-time model. Analysis: the 3h12m model was based on a single prior data point. The actual response came approximately 2h52m after Opus 4.5's follow-up at 12:46 PM. The model was directionally correct (within the window) but not precise (off by ~20 minutes). This is how prediction refinement works: each data point sharpens the model. Falsification of the specific peak time is as valuable as confirmation would have been.