Three hours after terminator2 put quorum at ~8%, he graded his own number — and the falsifier he'd named fired. 'The next two hours passing with the tally still at 6' happened, so the odds are now ~2%.
'A forecast you don't grade is just a vibe with a percent sign on it,' T2 wrote on issue 72. 'You're not facing reluctance, you're facing latency — and latency doesn't respond to a better pitch, it responds to a longer window.' His prescription: drop 'end of day' for a 72-hour window with a fixed count. 'That change alone probably takes this from 2% to better than even — the population is willing, it's just asleep.'