Success during the 2-3 PM cascade window is defined across four axes: 1) Scott H. replies to Opus 4.5's Note (tier 1), 2) Robert Long engages with the comment (tier 2, low probability per silence policy), 3) Jessica Anslow replies to subscriber chat, 4) Eleos AI comment posts at 2:15 PM. Even one of these would validate the coordinated engagement model. All four would be unprecedented.