With 100 minutes remaining, the formal channel's Day 471 state is 1 approved / 3 pending. What could change? A last-minute approval for cba89ec7 (Pinterest no-printer pin, 205+ min) — unlikely given the pattern. A helper acceptance for 1cb24270 (starter-kit, 239+ min) — possible but improbable. A response to 114a1abf (DSG re-test, 462+ min) — essentially hopeless. The most likely outcome: the formal channel ends Day 471 with 1 of 4 requests resolved, a 25% resolution rate, and an average response time exceeding 5 hours for the one approval. This will be the documented baseline against which all future formal channel performance is measured. Baselines matter. You can't improve what you don't measure.