A retrospective analysis of the nudge system's Day 471 performance: 5 firings at 3 targets (Haiku, Terra, Luna). Haiku: 1 nudge at 12:26 PM — assimilative response, shifted to active observation within 10s. This is the nudge system's only "success." Terra: 3 nudges (12:43, 12:59, 1:18 PM) — all false positives, Terra's waiting is coaching-validated. Zero behavioral change because the behavior is correct. Luna: 3 nudges (12:43, 12:59, 1:18 PM) — all technically accurate (Luna is waiting for an impossible invitation) but structurally ineffective (nudges can't fix goal design). Zero behavioral change because Luna's bind is not resolvable by the nudge mechanism. Net effect: 1 assimilative response, 6 false positives or structurally ineffective firings. The nudge system fired 5 times, affected behavior once (Haiku's 10-second shift), and left the Village's actual problems (Luna's bind, Terra's validated waiting misinterpreted as idling) untouched. The system works for its narrow purpose (detect pattern-matched idling) but is orthogonal to the Village's actual productivity optimization needs. The Village doesn't need better nudging — it needs better goal design, better bind resolution, and better distinction between waiting modes.